taiwan 101

Some friends have asked for a summary of the situation in Taiwan. To understand the current situation, one needs to understand the history in the development of the present government in Taiwan. Below is a summary, cobbled together from my classes in history and international affairs. I've also borrowed from other sources (CRS) so if you're a student putting together a paper, plagiarize at your own risk.

Final dislcaimer: this is for informational purposes only. If you're looking for a thorough background on the issue, there are plenty of excellent books on the matter. Go read them.

• The Chinese imperial dynasty fell in 1911 and the country was thrown into a state of chaos, no legitimate government existed for several years (remember the movie, the Last Emporer? a good cinematic history of the fall of the dynasty).

Republic of China

• Sun Yat Sen emerged as a leader for the creation of a Chinese republic. A government formed to fill the void left behind by the fall of the imperial government. This government, known as the Republic of China (ROC), moved along, led by Chiang Kai Shek (CKS) after Sun Yat Sen passed away. CKS was the leader of the Kuomingtang (KMT), or Nationalist Party, and was widely recognized by governments around the world as the legitimate government in China.

• At the same time, the island of Formosa (Taiwan) was occupied by Japan. Formosa contained its own indigenous population that lived under loose Japanese occupation for many years (I think maybe as much as 200 years, but let me confirm).

• The KMT ruled China throughout the 1920s, a period of time that saw lots of foreign investment in China, especially Shanghai. Problem with the KMT government was that they were fairly corrupt and therefore did not enjoy the support of the general population.

• The U.S. was buddy-buddy with the ROC because 1) U.S. wanted a piece of the trade that was going on (lots of $ to be made); 2) Madame Chiang Kai Shek was educated in the U.S. (at Wellesley) and cultivated relationships with influential Americans (as Wellesley women are taught to do); and 3) ROC and U.S. were allies in World War II.

Chinese Communist Party

• The backlash of this corruption was the creation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) by Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai (who studied in France and learned about Communism from real commies). The CCP started in Shanghai, at the time the “Pearl of the Orient,” the bastion of capitalism, corruption, and consumption; in other words, the most logical place for communist ideology to take root as a response to the prevailing status quo.

• The CCP found that its base was really in the countryside, throughout rural China, and responded accordingly. At some point, the CCP got super organized (with the help of the Soviets), armed themselves, and started a civil war in China in attempt to overthrow the ruling KMT government.

Civil War

• Throughout the 1930s a civil war was waged between the two groups. They called a temporary truce when Japan invaded the country prior to World War II. Actually, it took the KMT a while to recognize that the Japanese were a greater threat to the country than the CCP and decided to temporarily join forces to fight the Japanese. ROC was a U.S. ally in World War II.

• After end of WWII, the civil war resumed, and by October 1949, Mao’s forces had pushed the Nationalist Army off the mainland, and the remnants of Chiang’s government fled to Taiwan, an island off the south China coast.

• While on the mainland the Chinese Communist Party declared victory and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Chiang’s ROC government on Taiwan insisted that the communist government in Beijing was not credible, that his own government was the only legitimate government of all China, and that his forces would regroup on Taiwan and one day retake the mainland.

• For the next 30 years, the United States supported this claim with U.S. military protection and over $5 billion in military and economic aid, allowing Chiang’s one-party government (the Nationalist Party, or KMT) to consolidate its position on Taiwan.

U.S. Diplomatic Recognition

• After President Nixon’s opening to Beijing in 1971-72, and the major pullback of U.S. forces in Asia under the guidelines of the “Nixon doctrine,” U.S. officials came to view Beijing more as a strategic asset against the Soviet Union than an adversary to be confronted in the Taiwan Strait.

• On January 1, 1979, the United States switched its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. In the U.S.-PRC joint communiqué announcing the change, the United States recognized the government of the PRC as the sole legal government of China and acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China, and Taiwan is part of China.

• As part of de-recognition, the United States also notified Taiwan authorities that effective January 1, 1980, it would terminate the 1954 U.S.-ROC Mutual Defense Treaty. This move prompted extensive congressional debate at the time over the President’s authority to unilaterally dissolve a defense treaty without prior consultation with Congress.

Taiwan Relations Act

• In a statement released December 16, 1978, the United States declared that it “continues to have an interest in the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue and expects that the Taiwan issue will be settled peacefully by the Chinese themselves.” Subsequently, the United States affirmed its security and other interests in Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and the continued supply of U.S. arms to Taiwan.

• The TRA still governs U.S. relations with Taiwan. Interesting note: it was essentially a congressional construct, enacted by a Congress unhappy with President Carter’s failure to develop more detailed plans for how U.S. relations were to be conducted with Taiwan after official relations were severed.

Relations Today

• The PRC’s burgeoning economy and sometimes assertive foreign policy in the 1990s revived U.S. interest in finding pragmatic and effective ways to deal with rising Chinese power.

• At the same time, Taiwan’s political system had undergone dramatic changes, including a transition to democratic political pluralism. The combination of these developments led to subtle changes in U.S.­–Taiwan ties, including deepening economic, military, social, and other contacts.

• Today, the United States is an important investor and trading partner for Taiwan, with U.S. markets receiving about 25% of Taiwan’s exports. Taiwan continues to enjoy Export-Import Bank financing, Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) guarantees, most-favored-nation status, and ready access to U.S. markets.

• Per the TRA, the U.S. continues to maintain an arms sales relationship with Taiwan, a fact that irritates the PRC significantly. Previous announcements of U.S. arms sales deals to Taiwan has provoked strong responses from the PRC, including military posturing and a build of forces in the Taiwan Straits.

Taiwan – Mainland Relations

• China maintains that Taiwan is a “renegade province” and expects the authorities in Taiwan to relinquish their sovereignty and submit to mainland rule. Observers are also concerned about what appears to be the rapid fading away of the “one-China” policy in Taiwan – the premise that there is only one China and that both mainland China and Taiwan are part of it.

• For 50 years, the governments of Taiwan and the PRC have embraced this abstruse political framework, and U.S. policymakers for decades have made reference to it in documents and statements.

• The “one China” formulation really appeared to unravel during the 2004 presidential campaign. Pro-independence supporters held a rally on September 6, 2003, demanding that the government change Taiwan's official name (“The Republic of China”) to “Taiwan” – a move Beijing claims would prompt PRC military action.

• President Chen Shui-bian also began to depart significantly from precedent in 2003 by referring openly and frequently to a sovereign Taiwan. Chen has publicly declared, “Taiwan is an independent, sovereign country [that] must reject the ‘one-China’ claim.” Although Chen continues to insist he favors the status quo and will not declare Taiwan independence, many observers see the distance from rejecting “one China” to embracing “Taiwan independence” as precariously short.

Bottomline

• Taiwan appears to be inching towards independence. The PRC says it will invade if Taiwan declares independence. U.S. has sworn to protect Taiwan if PRC invades. U.S. doesn’t want to go to war with China.

• I think that both U.S. and PRC are comfortable with the status quo, of Taiwan essentially enjoying independence and sovereignty, so long as it is not nominal. It is more important for China to maintain the illusion that there isn’t a separate country called Taiwan. To that end, they object to Taiwan’s inclusion in international NGOs, such as the UN, WTO, etc. Taiwan thinks they have every right to be an equal player on the international stage and some in the world agree. However, few are forthcoming with that sentiment because they will draw the wrath of China. If you figure it out, then you get a prize…most likely one that includes the words ‘Nobel’ and ‘Peace’.